Bitcoin Surges 3.7% on Hormuz Opening

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessel traffic for the duration of the current ceasefire. US President Donald Trump confirmed the move via Truth Social the same day.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $77,000 in response, gaining over 3.7% in 24 hours and recovering approximately 5% on a weekly basis, according to CoinMarketCap and TradingView data. Brent crude oil futures fell roughly 10% to around $85 per barrel as supply disruption fears eased.

Why This Matters

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments. Any blockade threatens energy supply chains and risks reigniting inflation fears worldwide. Friday's announcement was interpreted as a broad risk-on signal across markets.

The Kobeissi Letter noted that investors who sold in March are now "rushing back into the market," with the S&P 500 recovering $7 trillion in market value over the past three weeks.

A Broader Iran Deal on the Table

Axios reported Friday that US officials are weighing a proposal to release up to $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran dismantling its enriched uranium stockpile — part of a three-page framework aimed at ending the conflict.

Trump clarified that the US naval blockade would remain in "full force and effect" until the deal is "100% complete," adding that "most of the points are already negotiated."

April 22 Ceasefire Expiry Is the Key Risk [Expert Analysis]

The current optimism carries a hard deadline. The US-Israel-Iran ceasefire expires April 22. If talks stall or the ceasefire lapses, fears of a renewed Hormuz blockade could rapidly reverse the market rally.

For Bitcoin to sustain its upward momentum, visible progress in negotiations before April 22 is likely necessary. Should the $20 billion frozen fund deal materialize, expanded global liquidity could provide additional upside for risk assets broadly. Analyst Tom Lee has projected Ethereum (ETH) could surpass $60,000, signaling broad crypto market optimism if geopolitical tensions continue to ease.