Middle East War Hits Caribbean Six Weeks In

Just six weeks after war erupted in the Middle East, its economic shockwaves have reached the Caribbean, already pushed to the brink by successive climate disasters. A report co-published by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) warns that the Strait of Hormuz shipping and energy crisis has triggered one of the most significant global trade shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Crude oil prices surged past $114 per barrel earlier this year, compounded by soaring shipping costs, insurance fees and delivery delays — all hitting the heavily import-dependent Caribbean islands hard.

Why the Caribbean?

The Caribbean's food self-sufficiency is critically low, leaving it structurally exposed to import price swings. Food prices in the region have already risen 55–60% since 2018, well above pre-pandemic levels. Rising fuel costs are now amplifying food distribution expenses, squeezing low-income households the hardest.

"Even with a fragile ceasefire now in place, volatility remains high — and the Caribbean, heavily reliant on imported food, is feeling the squeeze fast," the report's authors warn. For families spending a large share of their income on food and transport, even modest price increases could force them to skip meals, switch to cheaper and less nutritious options, or fall into debt.

A Long-Running Vulnerability

The Caribbean's food fragility did not emerge overnight. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 devastated tourism revenues and shattered supply chains. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drove up grain prices, raising import costs a second time.

Climate shocks have compounded the damage. Hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa last October left communities with little resilience to absorb new blows. Against this backdrop, the latest Middle East energy shock arrives as a third successive wave of pressure.

The El Niño Wildcard

The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates a 61% chance of an El Niño event striking by mid-2026. Historically, El Niño brings heatwaves, drought and crop failures to the Caribbean. Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago are among the most exposed. Belize has already begun preparing for drought, while farmers across the region fear declining harvests as rainfall drops and temperatures climb.

Outlook [Expert Analysis]

Experts say the coming months will be critical. Without swift action to stabilize markets, support incomes and protect food production, the region could slide into a deeper crisis. Even if global energy markets stabilize, the damage may linger — trapping the Caribbean in a cycle of rising prices, climate shocks and growing food insecurity.

The Caribbean's predicament also carries lessons for other import-dependent economies: when energy and food security vulnerabilities are left unaddressed, external shocks can rapidly cascade into humanitarian emergencies.