Trump's Ceasefire in Crisis Within 36 Hours

The ceasefire with Iran announced by President Donald Trump on Tuesday night is now on the verge of collapse. The cause: Israel. In the 36 hours following the ceasefire declaration, Israeli forces conducted massive airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and wounding thousands.

The strikes extended beyond Israel's traditional targets in southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut into the heart of the capital — what multiple foreign media outlets described as the heaviest bombardment of Lebanon since Israel's 1982 invasion.

Trump insisted the ceasefire remains intact, calling Israel's attacks "a separate skirmish." But the agreement — brokered by Pakistan's prime minister and reportedly reviewed by the U.S. before its public release — explicitly called for "an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon."

Why It Matters

The phrase "including Lebanon" effectively became void after Netanyahu spoke with Trump just before the ceasefire announcement. Trump confirmed Thursday that he told Netanyahu to "low-key it" — widely interpreted as giving Israel implicit permission to immediately violate the ceasefire.

Iran responded sharply. As long as Israel continues violating the ceasefire, Tehran said it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes. Planned talks in Islamabad between the U.S. and Iran to negotiate a longer-term deal during the two-week ceasefire window are now in doubt.

Netanyahu framed the ceasefire as merely "a way station on the way to achieving all of our goals," signaling no intent to stop. Reports suggest Netanyahu was also the one who convinced Trump to launch this war in the first place.

A Decades-Long Pattern of Sabotage

Netanyahu's behavior is not new. For decades, he has repeatedly disrupted American diplomatic overtures toward Iran.

When Iran's reformist President Khatami signaled openness to dialogue in the late 1990s, when early nuclear talks began under George W. Bush, and when the Obama administration negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), Israel was consistently the loudest voice of opposition.

In 2015, Netanyahu took the extraordinary step of addressing the U.S. Congress directly to denounce Obama's nuclear negotiations — a rare instance of a foreign leader publicly attacking the sitting administration's foreign policy. When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, analysts widely attributed significant Israeli influence over that decision.

Netanyahu once notoriously said, "America is a thing you can move very easily" — a remark that encapsulates his approach to Washington: not as an ally to be respected, but as a tool to be leveraged.

What Comes Next [Expert Analysis]

The current situation is likely to bifurcate into several possible scenarios.

First, if Iran follows through on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets are likely to face immediate shock — a spike in oil prices that would directly contradict Trump's economic priorities.

Second, without real American pressure on Israel, Iran is unlikely to find justification to return to the negotiating table. Iran's hardliners will almost certainly interpret these events as proof that Washington neither can nor will rein in Tel Aviv.

Third, cracks in bipartisan U.S. support for Israel are widening. A reported wave of Democratic senators rejecting arms sales to Israel signals that the domestic political calculus may be shifting — a dynamic Netanyahu cannot ignore indefinitely.

Fourth, some analysts suggest Netanyahu's strategic objective may be to drag the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Under that reading, a ceasefire collapse is not a failure — it is the plan.

Ultimately, the fate of this diplomatic effort hinges on whether Trump is willing to impose real costs on Netanyahu's obstruction. So far, his actions point in the opposite direction.