An Ultimatum Wrapped as a Thanksgiving Gift

The Donald Trump administration is pushing forward a 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine. The White House has demanded that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agree to the plan by Thanksgiving, threatening to cut off intelligence sharing and critical weapons support if he refuses.

Oleh Shamshur, former Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, described the plan in an interview with OBOZ.UA as "typical gangster-style pressure, not diplomacy." His assessment: "It's all about surprise attacks, intimidation, pressure, and ultimatums."

What Russia Gets, What Ukraine Receives

This peace proposal offers generous rewards for Russia's aggression. Russia retains occupied territories, returns to the international political stage, and gains opportunities to restore economic benefits. Meanwhile, Ukraine receives only vague security guarantees and "security assurances."

Former Ambassador Shamshur compared this to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum: "Essentially the same promises that were useless when Russian tanks rolled into Crimea."

Key problems with the plan:

• De facto recognition of Russia's territorial occupation
• International rehabilitation of the Putin regime
• Opportunities for Russia's economic recovery
• Absence of substantive security guarantees for Ukraine

Europe Excluded from Negotiations

European leaders have been reduced to spectators watching a finished script. They're invited to watch the performance without having been called to rehearsals.

Shamshur notes: "Secret negotiations have been ongoing between Steve Witkoff (Trump's envoy), Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law), and Russian contacts. What we're seeing now is the result of these exchanges."

Europe belatedly recognized the plan's dangers. They're now hastily proposing amendments and trying to check Trump, but they've already lost the initiative.

Zelensky's Double Pressure

The Ukrainian president faces unprecedented dual pressure. On one side, Putin demands more; on the other, Trump insists on agreement "right now."

Asked "why now, and why as an ultimatum," Shamshur outlined several factors:

1. Critical frontline situation: Russian military advances
2. Ukraine's internal political crisis: The Mindych recording scandal
3. Trump's fundamental goal: Ending the war under any conditions

Shamshur analyzes: "Witkoff, Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance seem to have concluded that Ukraine is maximally weakened right now. They rushed this plan as a Thanksgiving gift for the boss."

A Peace Plan That Became Putin's Wish List

Regarding the plan's origins, Shamshur offers a clear opinion: "There's a strong impression it was based on Russian documents. It's questionable who contributed more, but the basic framework seems to have come from Russia."

His diagnosis: Trump trusts and tries to impose on Ukraine and Europe a document written by figures far removed from transparency or professional diplomacy.

This Is Not Peace, Only a Ceasefire

The biggest problem is that this plan isn't genuine peace. Through this agreement, Russia would:

• Gain time to reorganize military forces
• Achieve economic recovery and sanctions relief
• Return to the international stage with restored legitimacy
• Prepare for the next attack

Shamshur's warning is clear: "Putin will get everything he needs to regroup and prepare for the next phase of war. This time, it will be a war not just against Ukraine, but against Europe."

Future Prospects [AI Analysis]

Forcing through this peace plan could lead to several outcomes.

In the short term, serious rifts could emerge between Ukraine, the United States, and Europe. If Zelensky's government succumbs to pressure, domestic political crisis will intensify; if they refuse, the frontline situation could worsen with the suspension of U.S. military and intelligence support.

In the medium term, a period of Russian rearmament and reorganization is likely. Historically, the pattern of Russia rebuilding military capacity after the Chechen wars could repeat. Sanctions relief and resumed international trade would provide the Putin regime with necessary resources.

In the long term, fundamental reorganization of Europe's security order is anticipated. If Trump administration unilateralism weakens the NATO alliance system, European nations will seek to strengthen independent defense capabilities. Simultaneously, Russia's expanding influence would pose direct threats to Eastern European countries including the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania.

Shamshur's characterization of this as "the beginning of a bigger war" may not be an exaggeration. History shows that peace agreements rewarding aggressors have never brought sustainable peace.