What Happened

Global fossil-fuel power generation declined measurably in the first month of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that, across all countries with real-time electricity data outside China, coal-fired generation fell 3.5% and gas-fired generation fell 4.0%, with renewables stepping in to fill the gap.

Energy markets simultaneously sent the opposite signal. After US-Iran peace talks collapsed and the Trump administration ordered a blockade of Iranian ports, oil prices surged more than 7%, pushing back above $100 a barrel — reversing a brief dip that had followed a conditional two-week ceasefire announcement.

Why It Matters

European governments moved quickly to shield citizens and businesses from surging energy costs. Ireland announced a €505 million support package, Germany confirmed €1.6 billion in measures, and a draft EU proposal — due next week — is expected to outline steps to lower electricity prices and accelerate clean-energy deployment.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu pledged €10 billion a year through 2030 for electrification, calling it a doubling of existing support. It is a signal that Europe's drive to cut fossil-fuel dependence is holding firm even amid crisis.

On the climate-diplomacy front, however, the picture is darker. Delegates attending the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank were reportedly urged not to mention the word 'climate' under US pressure, raising fears that a planned World Bank climate action plan could be shelved entirely.

Historical Thread

The simultaneous decline of fossil-fuel power and the eruption of an energy crisis may look paradoxical, but the two trends have been intertwined for years.

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe's energy vulnerabilities and accelerated the renewables transition. The EU's REPowerEU plan cut Russian gas dependency while massively expanding solar and wind capacity. By 2023, more than 95% of new global power capacity came from renewables.

The late-2025 escalation in the Strait of Hormuz delivered a fresh supply shock — yet paradoxically reinforced the investment case for clean energy. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has pressed the UK to open North Sea oil fields and continued pushing domestic fossil-fuel expansion under its 'drill, baby, drill' banner, a stance critics argue is eroding the foundations of international climate cooperation.

Outlook [Expert Analysis]

Meteorologists are warning of a potential 'super' El Niño this summer that could amplify temperatures and drive extreme weather events, multiple outlets reported. The implications for an already-stressed global climate system are significant.

On the science front, a study published in Science Advances suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken by 50% by 2100 under a medium-emissions scenario — a development that would likely reshape European climate patterns and accelerate sea-level rise.

Politically, the landslide defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary by Péter Magyar opens the possibility of a shift toward greater alignment with EU climate policy. And with COP31 set for Antalya in November, Tuvalu is set to host a pre-summit leaders' meeting — a gathering that will test whether meaningful climate commitments can survive the current geopolitical headwinds.