Europe Warns of Iran Conflict Escalation

Germany and France have expressed strong concerns that military tensions surrounding Iran could escalate into a global conflict. German Foreign Minister Jochen Baerboel warned at an event hosted by ZEIT Media Group in Berlin on the 18th (local time) that "an Iran war carries a real possibility of escalation worldwide."

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized in a parliamentary speech that "the United States did not consult with Europe at all, and there is no convincing plan for how military operations can succeed." He stated that this war risks creating tensions in the transatlantic alliance relationship, and that Europe would have raised objections to the current course of action.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot also called the military escalation "dangerous and out of control," urging Iran to make concessions that would enable a political solution.

Germany Strongly Opposes Regime Change Theory

Minister Baerboel firmly rejected the idea of pursuing regime change in Iran. He emphasized that "controlled regime change is a hypothetical idea without realism" and that "all past regime change attempts have failed."

Referring to the cases of Iraq and Libya, Minister Baerboel warned that "Iran's instability would destabilize the entire Middle East and trigger a new refugee crisis toward Europe." He added that "chaos in Iran would be as bad as the current regime" and "this serves neither our interests, nor the region's interests, nor the Iranian people's interests."

Germany wants a swift end to the fighting and urged the United States and Israel to intensify diplomatic efforts to establish a post-war security framework in the region after determining that military objectives have been achieved. Minister Baerboel asserted that "there is no military solution to this conflict."

Iran Warns of Retaliation Against Gulf Energy Facilities

Iran has warned of retaliation against energy assets in the Gulf region in response to Israel's attack on its massive South Pars gas field. The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on the 18th that facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are on the target list at risk of airstrikes from Tehran.

Fars News Agency separately reported that "attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure will not go unpunished." Israel's attack on South Pars has sent shockwaves through oil and gas markets, amplifying concerns about energy security in the region.

Impact on South Korea

The escalation of the Middle East crisis could have direct impacts on South Korea. South Korea depends on the Middle East for approximately 70% of its crude oil imports, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE being major oil suppliers to Korea. If oil transportation routes through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked or Gulf region energy facilities are attacked, serious damage to South Korea's energy security is anticipated.

Additionally, instability in the Middle East could lead to surging international oil prices, adding inflationary pressure across the Korean economy. The government is reportedly reviewing emergency response measures including utilizing strategic petroleum reserves and securing alternative supply lines.