2026 Markets Driven by Resource Competition

From the start of 2026, global markets have been focused on 'gold, silver, and copper.' On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Sumitomo Metal Mining hit its highest price since listing, while Mitsubishi Materials reached its highest level in eight years. Surging copper prices and rising precious metal values, including gold, have driven gains across the non-ferrous metals sector.

Behind this lies heightened geopolitical risk. With less than a month until the Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, the 'gold, silver, and copper' that markets are watching signals division and tension—far from the Olympic symbols of peace.

Trump's Greenland Intervention: Opening Salvo of Resource Wars

President Trump's remarks on Greenland are rattling markets. Greenland is a self-governing territory of Denmark and part of a NATO member state. Trump stated that Greenland is strategically critical to U.S. national security, prompting Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen to warn that this constitutes military pressure that undermines NATO's foundation. Six European nations issued statements supporting Denmark in response.

Beyond its strategic location, Greenland's southern region contains world-class rare earth deposits. Competition to secure rare earths—essential for high-tech industries—is intensifying. While Trump's actions ahead of fall midterm elections remain unpredictable, analysts forecast that if Greenland intervention materializes, its impact would dwarf the Venezuela situation.

China's Rare Earth Regulations Hit Japanese Markets

China announced tightened export controls on rare earths to Japan, strengthening regulations on items with potential military applications. Concerns over rare earth supplies—with China accounting for over half of global production—immediately affected markets.

Japan's Nikkei average, which had been hitting new highs in the new year, plunged on this news. Analysts suggest China's move is connected to Japanese statements regarding potential Taiwan contingencies. If Sino-Japanese tensions persist, the impact on Japan's economy appears inevitable.

Safe-Haven Gold and Banking Stocks Rise Together

Safe-haven gold and related stocks continue their upward trajectory. Gold price increases have spread to silver and platinum, showing sharp gains since last year. While the Venezuela situation has settled, geopolitical risks themselves have not retreated.

Interestingly, 'silver' (銀) is drawing attention in another context: banking (銀行) stocks. As Japan's long-term interest rates rose to 27-year highs, megabank stocks like Mitsui Sumitomo FG reached all-time highs. Stock prices hitting records despite rising rates suggests markets are not viewing this as 'bad rate increases.'

Rather, some view the return to 'a world with interest rates' as a sign that Japan's economy is finally escaping deflation and entering a growth phase.

2026: Olympic Ideals vs. Market Realities

2026 features major sporting events: the World Baseball Classic in March, FIFA World Cup in June, and the Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics in February. The Olympics open as a 'festival of peace,' with gold, silver, and bronze medals symbolizing humanity's collaborative achievements.

Yet the 'gold, silver, and copper' markets are buying represents division, tension, and anxiety. Gold is being purchased, resources are being sought, and geopolitical risks are being priced in. The contrast between Olympic medal ideals and market realities may capture the essence of 2026 markets.

Outlook [AI Analysis]

From oil and gold to copper and rare earths, the keywords driving markets from the start of 2026 consistently point to underground resources and minerals. This is a trend that cannot be ignored when reading this year's markets.

However, resource issues shaking markets represent only surface movements. Beneath lies political issues and the geopolitical risks they generate.

Concerns over the Koichi Hayashi administration's proactive fiscal policy are also contributing factors, including expectations for additional Bank of Japan rate hikes. But considering the politics and geopolitical risks behind resource issues, the situation is far from simple.

Depending on U.S. actions, global geopolitical risks could intensify further. In such an environment, the hurdle for the Bank of Japan to implement additional rate increases appears quite high.