Global Economy Rebounds from Tariff Shock

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2026 global economic growth forecast upward from 3.1% to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The 2025 growth forecast was also raised from 3.2% to 3.3%, up 0.1 percentage points.

This upward revision reflects the gradual easing of U.S. tariffs that had surged last year, as well as companies' efforts to absorb the shock by restructuring their supply chains. IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that "the global economy is performing better than expected as it moves beyond the trade disruptions and tariff shocks of 2025."

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Falling Tariff Rates and AI Investment Drive Growth

The IMF projects that the U.S. effective tariff rate will decline to 18.5% by 2026. This is significantly lower than the 25% estimated in April 2025. The reduction follows the Trump administration's phased tariff relief through trade agreements with other countries after tariffs peaked in April 2025.

Simultaneously, a boom in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment is supporting growth. Large-scale investments in data centers, AI chip development, and related energy facilities—primarily centered in the United States—have driven asset prices and productivity expectations higher.

The IMF raised the U.S. 2026 growth forecast to 2.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, while Spain is also expected to grow 2.3% (up 0.3 percentage points) due to expanded technology investment. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom's forecast remained unchanged at 1.3%.

Tariff Policy Trends Since 2022

Global supply chain restructuring accelerated after the pandemic in 2022, leading countries to strengthen protectionist trade policies. The United States, in particular, sharply increased tariffs on major trading partners including China following the inauguration of Trump's second administration after the 2024 election.

In April 2025, the average U.S. tariff rate soared to around 25%, causing significant disruption to global trade flows. However, subsequent negotiations between the U.S. and major trading partners led to gradual tariff reductions, while companies responded by diversifying their supply chains away from the United States. China adopted a strategy of redirecting exports to markets outside the U.S.

When the IMF issued its October 2024 forecast, tariff shocks had not yet fully materialized, leading to conservative growth projections. As the situation stabilized faster than expected, the IMF began raising its forecasts incrementally from July 2025 onward.

Uncertainty Factors: Trade Policy and AI Bubble Concerns

The IMF warned that several risk factors remain in the growth outlook.

First, trade policy uncertainty. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule within days or weeks on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs. Director Gourinchas cautioned that "if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs and Trump imposes new tariffs based on other trade laws, global trade policy uncertainty would increase significantly."

Second, the possibility of an AI investment bubble. While AI infrastructure investment is expanding rapidly, if productivity gains and profit growth fall short of expectations, market corrections could dampen demand. Additionally, if the AI boom continues at its current pace, inflationary pressures could resurface.

Third, geopolitical tensions. Instability in the Middle East and regional conflicts could cause further disruptions to supply chains and markets.

Outlook [AI Analysis]

The IMF projects that if AI technology spreads rapidly and productivity improvements materialize, 2026 global economic growth could rise by up to an additional 0.3 percentage points. Over the medium term, depending on the pace of AI adoption and countries' readiness levels, AI could contribute 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points annually to growth.

However, this scenario requires countries to adopt AI technology swiftly while fostering business innovation and process improvements. If investment returns prove disappointing or trade tensions escalate again, growth rates are likely to fall below current forecasts.

Global economic growth for 2027 is projected at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous forecast. The U.S. 2027 growth forecast was revised down 0.1 percentage points to 2.0%.