India announces Paris Agreement 2035 target

India, the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, announced a new climate goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions relative to GDP (emission intensity) by 47% compared to 2005 levels by 2035. This announcement is part of the renewal of nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, and was originally scheduled to be submitted in 2024, but was delayed.

The Indian Cabinet approved this target on March 25, and it was made public through a government press release. It has not yet been formally submitted to the United Nations (UN).

Main pledge contents

India's new NDC contains three key goals:

First, reduce GDP emissions intensity by 47% compared to 2005 by 2035. This is a 2 percentage point increase from the 2030 goal (45% reduction) announced in 2022.

Second, by 2035, 60% of electric power facility capacity will be composed of non-fossil fuels (renewable energy and nuclear energy).

Third, the CO2 absorption target for carbon sinks such as forests was adjusted upward. This is the first time that India has raised its carbon sink target since the Paris Agreement.

Why this goal is controversial

A key problem with emissions intensity targets is that absolute emissions may continue to increase with economic growth. In a situation where India's GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.1%, reducing emissions intensity alone does not reduce actual greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Action Tracker, a climate analysis group, said, “It is difficult to expect substantial emissions reductions with just a 2 percentage point increased intensity target,” and added, “It is unlikely that this target will lead to more ambitious climate action.”

Some experts criticized the goal as underestimating India's clean energy growth potential. Concerns have also been raised that forest targets could actually serve to mask the problem of deforestation.

When did this trend start?

India's climate policy has developed step by step since the Paris Agreement in 2015. The first NDC in 2016 promised to reduce emissions intensity by 33-35% by 2030, and raised this to 45% in 2022. According to a report submitted in December 2024, India has already achieved a 36% reduction in emissions intensity between 2005 and 2020.

However, under the Paris Agreement, developed countries are required to have absolute reduction targets, while intensity-based targets are allowed for India, a developing country. Even in the first ‘Global Stock Take’ in 2023, it was limited to ‘encouraging’ developing countries to gradually switch to absolute targets.

Future outlook [AI analysis]

India's target reflects a balance between its position as a developing country with a low historical emissions responsibility and the reality of being the world's third-largest emitter. Future points to watch are as follows.

First, there is the possibility of achieving the 60% non-fossil fuel goal. India is experiencing rapid growth in solar and wind power installations, so this goal is likely to be realistically achieved.

Second, the impact of the global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war on India's climate policy. Indian citizens are currently experiencing a gas shortage, which is likely to increase dependence on fossil fuels in the short term.

Third, the fact that financial demands related to adaptation, mitigation, and damage losses were omitted from this announcement may become an issue in future international climate negotiations.

Some experts in India commented positively, saying, “Despite its small historical contribution to emissions, India is doing more than its share.” On the other hand, international climate groups are pointing out the structural limits to which emissions from the world's most populous country can continue to increase.