Brent Crude Breaks $110, Surges 40% Since War Outbreak

International oil prices are soaring following Israel's airstrikes on Iran's major energy facilities. On the 19th (local time), Brent crude surpassed $110 per barrel, marking a rise of over 40% since the U.S.-Israel joint offensive against Iran began on February 28. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is also trading at the $98 per barrel level.

This oil price surge occurred immediately after Israeli forces struck Iran's largest gas field, the South Pars gas field, and the Asaluyeh oil facilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) immediately warned that "some energy facilities in the Gulf region are once again legitimate targets," hinting at the possibility of retaliatory attacks.

Strait of Hormuz Effectively Paralyzed, Global Supply Chain Crisis

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, has plummeted by 90% according to tracking data. This represents a severe blow to the global energy supply chain.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has assessed this situation as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Bank of America (BofA) has significantly raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $61 per barrel to $77.50 per barrel, warning that approximately 200 million barrels of crude oil have already been removed from the global market.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia confirmed on the 19th that its largest refinery, the Ras Tanura refinery, resumed operations on March 13. Additionally, the Trump administration announced a 60-day temporary waiver of the Jones Act, which restricts cargo transport between U.S. coastal ports to American vessels. However, despite these supply expansion measures, concerns over the escalation of Middle East conflicts continue to override the upward pressure on oil prices.

Qatar Expels Iranian Diplomats, Tensions Escalate

Qatar has declared Iranian embassy military and security officials as "persona non grata" and expelled them following attacks on its Ras Laffan gas facilities. This suggests that cracks are emerging in alliance relationships within the Gulf region.

As the conflict enters its third week, no prospects for a ceasefire are visible. With the ongoing possibility of additional attacks on energy infrastructure and subsequent retaliatory actions, uncertainty in the global energy market continues to grow.