250,000-Unit Shortage Expected Over 5 Years

Seoul's housing market is facing a severe supply cliff. At the "2026 Real Estate Legislative Forum" held on the 19th at the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, experts warned that up to 250,000 housing units could be in short supply over the next five years.

Yang Ji-young, an expert committee member at Shinhan Premier Pathfinder, pointed out that "Seoul has no more land to develop, making redevelopment projects virtually the only means of urban housing supply," adding that "while 80,000 units are needed annually, actual supply remains at around 30,000 units."

Households Increase Despite Population Decline

Paradoxically, Seoul is experiencing declining population alongside increasing housing demand. Over the past decade, Seoul's population decreased by 850,000, yet the number of households increased by 440,000. The rise in one- and two-person households and household fragmentation is driving housing demand.

Yang explained that "homes are occupied by households, not individuals," noting that "combining 50,000 new households and 30,000 replacement units for demolished housing requires 80,000 units annually, but actual supply falls far short of this."

Redevelopment Projects Delayed by Regulations

Demand is concentrating in urban centers, particularly core areas of Seoul. The highest subscription competition rates were all for redevelopment apartments, while the lowest were for public housing sites in outlying areas, supporting this trend.

However, redevelopment projects face significant delays due to various regulations including the Reconstruction Excess Profit Recapture System. "Maple Xi" in Seocho-gu, which was completed last year, was delayed by 2 years and 3 months after management disposition approval due to construction cost disputes and regulatory burdens. Cases like "Jamsil Le Ellui" and "Jamsil Raemian I-Park" in Songpa-gu are cited as examples where projects that typically take 4-5 years have extended beyond 7 years.

Public contributions have also been identified as factors worsening project viability. Yang noted that "uniform social mix requirements, forced donations of undesirable facilities, and identical standards for Gangnam and non-Gangnam areas make projects difficult."

Singapore-Style Dual Model Proposed

Experts proposed a "dual supply model" separating private redevelopment projects from public rental housing as a solution. Citing Singapore as an example, Yang explained that "more than 80% of Singapore's population lives in public housing (HDB) with homeownership rates reaching 90%," describing it as "a structure where the public sector handles most residential stability while the private sector absorbs remaining demand."

She added that "Singapore also differentiates regulations by location—outlying, intermediate, and urban core," noting that "the more urban the area, the stronger the regulations, but with expanded residential support."

Research committee member Lim Seok-ho proposed modular housing expansion as an alternative, emphasizing that "we need to expand housing supply channels through rapid, high-quality modular housing."

Ruling Party Signals Legislative Push for Housing Supply

The ruling party and government have announced they will accelerate legislation to stimulate housing supply. Under the principle that "supply is about speed and execution, and legislation supports that execution," attention is focused on how the various policy proposals presented at this forum will be reflected in future legislative discussions.

Center Director Jeon Seong-je emphasized that "the sure way to stabilize housing prices is ultimately supply," adding that "regional details determine success or failure."