Price Correction Spreads to Han River Belt

According to the weekly apartment price trends (as of the 16th) released by Korea Real Estate Board on the 19th for the third week of March, Seoul apartment sales prices rose only 0.05% compared to the previous week, marking the seventh consecutive week of slowing growth. Particularly noteworthy is that Seongdong District turned downward for the first time in 103 weeks and Dongjak District in 57 weeks, indicating that the price correction that began in the Gangnam area is now spreading in earnest to major areas along the Han River.

Seongdong District shifted from a 0.06% increase the previous week to -0.01%, while Dongjak District also turned downward from flat (0.00%) to -0.01%. This signifies that adjustment pressure is reaching mid-to-high-priced apartment concentrated areas with Han River locations such as Seongsu-dong and Yeouido.

Gangnam's Big 3 and Yongsan Continue Weakness for Fourth Week

The downward trend in core Gangnam areas is becoming more pronounced. Seocho District's decline widened from -0.07% to -0.15%, and Yongsan District's drop also expanded from -0.03% to -0.08%. Songpa District (-0.16%) and Gangnam District (-0.13%) continued their decline for the fourth consecutive week, while Gangdong District, which turned downward last week, saw its decline deepen to -0.02%.

Korea Real Estate Board analyzed that "amid an overall wait-and-see atmosphere among market participants, prices are being adjusted as declining listings are being traded in some complexes."

Deepening Polarization: Mid-to-Low Price Areas Still Strong

What's interesting is the stark temperature difference between high-priced and mid-to-low-priced areas. Areas with relatively more mid-to-low-priced listings such as Jung District (0.20%), Seongbuk District (0.20%), Seodaemun District (0.19%), Yeongdeungpo District (0.15%), Yangcheon District (0.14%), and Gangseo District (0.14%) are still maintaining an upward trend, centered around subway station areas and large complexes.

This suggests that actual end-users are shifting their demand from high-priced properties in Gangnam to well-located apartments at accessible price points. Polarization by price range and region within Seoul's real estate market is intensifying.

Surge in Listings Triggered by May Capital Gains Tax Exemption Expiration

Experts cite the scheduled May 9th expiration of the capital gains tax exemption for multiple homeowners as the direct cause of this correction. The analysis is that an oversupply phenomenon is occurring as multiple homeowners rush to list properties to avoid tax burdens.

Nam Hyuk-woo, a real estate researcher at Woori Bank, pointed out that "listings are piling up as sales volume from multiple homeowners is combined with sales from actual end-users trying to move up to Gangnam," adding that "there's a possibility of additional listings coming out in the Han River Belt and adjacent districts due to concerns about holding tax burdens following increases in official prices."

In fact, in the Gangnam area, dual selling pressure is at work: tax-saving sales from multiple homeowners combined with actual end-users liquidating existing homes to move to Gangnam. On top of this, concerns about increased holding tax burdens due to rising official prices are raising the possibility of listings from elderly single-homeowners along the Han River.

Correction Atmosphere Spreading Across Metropolitan Area

Gyeonggi Province is also experiencing a slowdown in growth. The Gyeonggi Province apartment sales price growth rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points from 0.10% to 0.06%. Major new cities adjacent to Seoul such as Bundang (0.26%→0.11%), Suwon Yeongtong (0.45%→0.14%), Hwaseong Dongtan (0.32%→0.16%), Guri (0.39%→0.19%), and Hanam (0.43%→0.18%) all significantly reduced their growth rates. Gwacheon City continued its decline for the fifth consecutive week at -0.06%.

The nationwide apartment sales price growth rate also decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 0.02% compared to the previous week, confirming the overall cooling trend.

Jeonse Market Still Strong

In contrast to sales prices, the jeonse (long-term deposit rental) market is still maintaining its strength. Nationwide apartment jeonse prices recorded a 0.09% growth rate, the same as the previous week, while Seoul jeonse prices actually expanded from 0.12% to 0.13%. This shows that jeonse demand remains robust amid uncertainty in the sales market.

Future Outlook [AI Analysis]

Listings are likely to continue coming out until the May capital gains tax exemption expiration. Adjustment pressure is expected to persist, particularly in areas concentrated with high-priced apartments along the Han River. However, mid-to-low-priced actual end-user centered areas are likely to maintain a relatively solid trend, so polarization in Seoul's real estate market is expected to intensify for the time being.

With increasing holding tax burdens and continued high interest rates, the possibility of additional listings from high-priced property owners cannot be ruled out. Market experts predict that the price correction phase will continue at least until the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the strength of the jeonse market suggests that some sales demand is shifting to jeonse, which could act as a factor further accelerating the sales market correction.