New video reveals the true nature of the air raid

A new picture of the bombing of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) facility and an adjacent school that occurred in the city of Minab, Iran, in late February 2025 has been revealed. As a result of international investigative media's detailed analysis of two new videos released by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it was confirmed that at least two air strikes were launched in the area, and that the school was hit in the first wave.

According to multiple foreign media, at least 175 people, including children, were killed in this attack. A preliminary investigation by the U.S. Department of Defense concluded that it was highly likely that the U.S. airstrike hit Minab's Shajara Tayyeva Elementary School.

Why is this case important?

This incident is attracting the attention of the international community as it goes beyond a simple attack on military facilities and is a humanitarian disaster in which many civilians, especially children, were killed. The Tomahawk cruise missile is a weapon system that only the United States currently possesses among the parties to the conflict, so controversy surrounding responsibility for this attack is inevitable.

According to satellite image analysis and solar analysis by international investigative media, the two images were taken at different times. This suggests that the airstrikes were carried out in at least two rounds rather than a single operation. The first video was filmed about 2.5km away from the IRGC base and shows at least 10 missiles colliding in 50 seconds. At 14 seconds into the video, the area near the school was hit.

Historical context of the US-Iran conflict

Military tensions between the United States and Iran have a historical context that spans decades. Relations between the two countries deteriorated rapidly after the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, and the U.S. operation to eliminate IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 extremely heightened tensions between the two countries.

As instability in the Middle East region intensifies after 2023, clashes between Iran-linked militants and the U.S. military have become more frequent. In particular, from 2024, as the activities of Houthi rebels in Yemen and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria increased, US airstrikes also increased. This Minab airstrike took place amid this escalation of war, and is assessed to be at an all-time high in terms of the scale of civilian damage.

Technical details of video analysis

The second video was filmed about 2km southeast of the school, and has better quality than the first video. In this video, three Tomahawk missiles were captured just before impact. However, this video only captures the southern part of the base, so the school located on the northern edge of the base is not visible.

Investigative Media contacted Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs about the existence of a longer version of the video, but did not receive a response. The U.S. Department of Defense also declined to provide additional information, only stating that "the investigation is ongoing."

The filming location of the first video was identified as near the substation southeast of the school. The analysis team identified buildings, trees, water towers, etc. by comparing the sightlines of satellite images and actual images.

International community’s response and issues

This incident sparked an international legal debate about the obligation to protect civilians in U.S. airstrikes and whether the principle of proportionality was observed. Iran is strongly opposing the attack, saying it was an intentional attack on the school, and is demanding the international community find out the truth.

On the other hand, some Western experts note the proximity of IRGC facilities and schools, and also hold Iran responsible for placing civilian infrastructure around military facilities. However, the general interpretation of international humanitarian law is that this claim does not exempt the attacking entity from its obligation to protect civilians.

Future outlook [AI analysis]

This incident is likely to have significant repercussions in many aspects. First, if the results of the U.S. military's internal investigation are officially announced, it could have a significant impact on America's international credibility and Middle East policy. Second, Iran is expected to actively use this incident to justify its hard-line stance against the United States and to battle international public opinion.

Third, there is a possibility that a request for investigation will be raised at the level of the UN Human Rights Council or the International Criminal Court. Fourth, this incident could further escalate tensions between the US and Iran, deepening security instability throughout the Middle East. In particular, if Iran takes retaliatory measures, the risk of escalation of war in the region may increase.

Lastly, the open source intelligence (OSINT) technique used in this analysis shows that the role of independent investigative media will become more important in verifying civilian damage and establishing responsibility in conflict areas in the future.