Market Reacts Positively to US Job Revision Data

Global stock markets continued their upward momentum despite the US Labor Department's downward revision of job creation by 911,000 for the 12-month period ending in March. The S&P 500 index rose 0.27% to a record high of 6,512.61, while the Nasdaq gained 0.37% to 21,879.49, marking its second consecutive all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also climbed 0.43% to 45,711.34.

The job revision data suggests that employment growth had been slowing even before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies were implemented. However, investors noted that this data provides no information about job creation since March.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Persist

Julia Hermann, Global Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, offered a constructive interpretation: "You could interpret more constructively that the economy did just as well with half the job creation," adding that "the combination of a strong earnings base, positive earnings outlook, and limited Fed support through year-end provides the most constructive reason for equity market participation."

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut stands at 8%. Investors plan to closely monitor inflation data to be released on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the Fed's next monetary policy decision on September 17.

Global Market Trends Amid Political Uncertainty

MSCI's global stock index rose 0.23% to 961.10, while the pan-European STOXX index closed up 0.06%. Emerging market stocks gained 0.94% to 1,294.26.

However, political uncertainties across multiple countries are rattling currency and bond markets. In France, President Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as his fifth prime minister in less than two years. Additional market variables include the resignation of Japan's prime minister, Argentine President Javier Milei's party's defeat in local elections, and Indonesia's sudden finance minister replacement.

Argentina's main stock index, which plunged more than 13% the previous day, fell an additional 0.3% on Tuesday.

Dollar Strengthens Against Most Currencies Except Yen

In foreign exchange markets, the dollar showed strength against most currencies except the yen, recovering from the previous day's decline.

Future Outlook [AI Analysis]

While the job revision data was expected to have a negative short-term impact on markets, it may actually reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts. Investors are focusing on the fact that the economy maintained robust growth despite lower employment gains.

However, if this week's inflation indicators exceed expectations, the timing of Fed rate cuts could be delayed, potentially expanding short-term volatility. As global political uncertainties persist, markets are expected to react more sensitively to economic fundamentals and monetary policy direction.