Tomahawk missile spotted over Iraq

Bellingcat, an international investigative media outlet, reported that it had located video of multiple U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles passing through Iraqi airspace and flying toward Iran. Bellingcat identified at least 20 individual cruise missiles and confirmed that they were passing over Mount Pyramagrun and the Zagros Mountains in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and about 50km southeast of the city of Kirkuk.

Modern Tomahawk missiles can fly up to 1,600 km and are used for precision strikes. The United States is the only participating country known to possess Tomahawk missiles, and they can be launched from ships or submarines.

Presumed to have been launched in the Mediterranean Sea

Sam Lehr, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told Bellingcat, "The missiles identified in the video were most likely launched from the Mediterranean Sea." According to him, if launched from the Red Sea, it would be close to the maximum range, and it is not known that US Navy ships were in the Persian Gulf at the start of the war.

At the start of the war, the United States was deploying an aircraft carrier strike group in the Mediterranean and Arabian Sea, and some destroyers were also deployed independently. On February 28, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) released a video showing a Tomahawk missile being launched at sea on the first day of the war, and on March 1, it released an additional video showing the USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) operating in the Eastern Mediterranean launching a Tomahawk missile.

Controversy over violation of international law and Iraq’s position

“The entry of Tomahawk missiles into the airspace of Iraq and Syria without their consent is a violation of sovereignty and international law,” Brian Finucane, senior advisor to the International Crisis Group’s U.S. program, told Bellingcat.

Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani emphasized in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday that "Iraq's airspace and territory should not be used for any military action targeting neighboring countries," the prime minister's office said.

Bellingcat asked the U.S. Department of State, the Department of Defense, and the Foreign Ministries of Iraq and Syria whether there were agreements in place that would allow the United States to use the airspace of those countries for cruise missiles targeting third countries. The Pentagon responded that it had "nothing to offer," and the Iraqi and Syrian foreign ministries did not respond by press time.

Check President Trump’s remarks and facts

“Iran also has some Tomahawks,” U.S. President Donald Trump said at a press conference on Monday. However, official government reports on Iran's military capabilities do not support this claim.

Missile wreckage found in Syria

Not all missiles reach their targets. In addition to video of the missile in flight, Bellingcat confirmed the remains of a Tomahawk missile that crashed outside Kafr Zita in northwestern Syria. According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), more than 160 Tomahawk missiles were likely used in this attack.

Historical context: US military intervention in the Middle East and use of tomahawks

Tomahawk cruise missiles have played a key role in U.S. military operations in the Middle East since the 1991 Gulf War. In 2017, the United States launched 59 Tomahawks at Al-Shayrat Air Base in response to a chemical weapons attack in Syria, in additional airstrikes in Syria in 2018, and in the 2020 operation to eliminate Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

This incident shows how complex diplomatic and legal issues arise when the United States carries out military operations in the Middle East, as the issue of passage through the airspace of neighboring countries. In particular, Iraq has maintained a complex relationship with the U.S. military since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and has recently strengthened its relationship with Iran, making efforts to strike a balance between the two sides.

Future outlook [AI analysis]

This incident shows a new phase in the US-Iran conflict and has several implications.

Iraq's Diplomatic Dilemma Deepens: As a major ally of the United States and a neighbor of Iran, Iraq is in the difficult position of maintaining relations with both sides. This issue of airspace transit is likely to put pressure on the Iraqi government to express its position more clearly toward the United States.

Expanding international legal debate: The controversy over whether or not airspace is violated is expected to cause continued debate among international law scholars and diplomacy experts. If airspace were used without Iraq's explicit consent, this could set an important precedent for similar military operations in the future.

Increasing instability in the Middle East: If the US attacks on Iran continue, the possibility of Iranian retaliation and subsequent escalation of war cannot be ruled out. In particular, there is a possibility that Iran will respond asymmetrically through pro-Iranian militants who exercise influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

The development of this situation is expected to be an important touchstone for assessing the future security order in the Middle East region and the direction of U.S. policy toward the Middle East.