Scene of blockade: daily life collapsing

“If you see the bus, take a picture. It may be the last bus you see in Cuba.”

This is what the driver said in a taxi heading to Havana. His car was a Chinese-made electric car. On Cuba's crumbling roads, this car became both a novelty and a tool for survival in a near-total oil blockade.

As the Trump administration cut off fuel supplies to Cuba in an attempt to force political and economic change, the situation there has reached the most serious level a reporter has ever seen in 11 years of covering the island. Even when the tourism-dependent economy came to a halt during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was not to this extent.

Traces of the oil blockade are visible everywhere. Street corners are turning into heaps of trash. Transportation costs have soared to an unbearable level. Inflation is rising steeply. Food rots in ports and refrigerators, and tap water only comes out intermittently.

Personal tragedies left behind by the lockdown

One friend was unable to witness the birth of her child. This is because his wife, who has dual Spanish citizenship, decided to cross the Atlantic and give birth in Spain due to the miserable conditions in Cuban state-run hospitals. This is the result of the collapse of Cuba's medical system, which was once the best in Latin America.

Another friend with severe cataracts was told a week ago that her surgery, scheduled for February, had been postponed indefinitely after months of tests and lab work. Now she can't see anything with her left eye.

I have a friend whose wedding cost, which she had been saving for years to prepare, doubled overnight. Prices soared as companies ran out of their last fuel reserves.

Historical context of maximum pressure strategy

The Trump administration's gamble that it will deprive Cuba of its oil and spark a mass uprising, force the authorities into submission and create a leadership change, or create a free-market paradise is just the latest in a series of "maximum pressure" measures that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has designed to oust the Cuban regime. This has been a long-time goal of Rubio and many Cuban Americans.

This campaign has been ongoing since Trump's first term. Rubio, who served as the de facto Secretary of State for Latin America at the time, restricted American travel and remittances to Cuba. Cuba's access to international finance was blocked. The U.S. Embassy in Havana was closed. Dozens of additional sanctions were deployed in all areas, including hotel contracts, cruise ships, finance, and investments, most of which were maintained in the Biden administration.

Now, in Trump's second term, the maximum pressure strategy, for which Rubio takes full credit, is in full swing. The administration put pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, which until recently were Cuba's two largest fuel suppliers, to halt oil shipments. Pressure was put on Central American and Caribbean countries to break health care contracts with Cuba. Neighboring countries in the region were unofficially recommended to sever diplomatic relations with Cuba. The issuance of most Cuban national visas, including those for family reunification, scientific and business exchanges, and humanitarian parole, has also been suspended.

The severity of the crisis in numbers

As a result of these sanctions, Cuba's economy is expected to shrink by more than 7% by 2026. Cuba's infant mortality rate has nearly doubled in the past few years. About 20% of the population left the island.

Yet the Cuban people have found a way to make a living on the island with adaptability, pride, and resilience, under the longest and most comprehensive U.S. sanctions regime on Earth and hamstrung by inadequate resources.

Future outlook [AI analysis]

The U.S. blockade of Cuban oil is likely to lead to increased suffering for civilians rather than the collapse of the Cuban regime in the short term. Historically, attempts to change regimes through sanctions have had a low success rate and have tended to strengthen authoritarianism in the target country.

The Cuban government is expected to seek support from alternative allies such as Russia and China. This could provide geopolitical rivals with an opportunity to expand their influence in Latin America, which is the exact opposite of what the United States intended.

If the humanitarian crisis deepens, the possibility of a large-scale refugee crisis cannot be ruled out. With 20% of the population already leaving the island, further exodus could threaten even the basic functions of Cuban society.

As criticism from the international community grows, pressure may build to review the U.S. policy toward Cuba, but the possibility of policy change during the current administration's term appears low. Ultimately, without a negotiating table, a deadlock is expected to continue with no way out for both sides.