At least 17 civilians killed in airstrike near Chad border

Last week, at least 17 people were killed in an airstrike in Tiné, a town near the eastern border of Chad. Weapon remains recovered from the scene were found to be consistent with Chinese-made bombs used by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF). RSF denies involvement in the attack, but analysis by independent investigators points in a different direction.

According to an analysis by Bellingcat, an investigative news outlet, the remains photographed at the scene match the shape of the rear control unit of a GB25A or GB50A bomb manufactured by China's Norinco. This bomb is a guided weapon that can be dropped from a Chinese drone.

Why is this case important?

This incident goes beyond a simple border dispute and reveals the complex aspects of international arms trafficking and proxy wars. Amnesty International said in a previous report that the GB50A bomb used by RSF was "almost certainly" re-exported via the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This raises suspicions of illegal arms transfers that circumvented the international arms embargo.

The Chadian government immediately responded. Chad's president on Thursday ordered the military to retaliate for the attack from Sudan, further escalating military tensions between the two countries.

Sudanese civil war spreads to Chad - When did it start?

In Sudan, an all-out war has been taking place between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF since April 2023. This conflict has gradually spread to neighboring countries.

According to related reports, Chad had already closed its borders last month. At that time, a fire broke out between the RSF and militias loyal to the Sudanese government in the Tine region, resulting in the deaths of five Chadian soldiers. This airstrike occurred as an extension of that, showing that the cross-border spread of the conflict is deepening.

The Bellingcat investigation team identified the location of the wreckage by comprehensively analyzing the time on the wristwatch of the person in the scene photo, the position of the sun, and the direction of the shadow. Comparison with satellite images showed that the spot was just 650 meters from the border with the RSF-controlled West Darfur region, northwest of Bir Tine region.

Similar GB25A or GB50A bomb remains have previously been found at RSF attack sites in Sudan. Representative examples include the attack sites at Kassala Airport and the Coral Marina Hotel in Port Sudan.

Responsibility battle between both parties

“Our forces are not responsible for any attacks on neighboring Chad and have nothing to do with this attack,” RSF spokesman Al-Fate Kurassi told Bellingcat. Rather, he pointed the finger at the Sudanese government forces.

Imran Abdullah, advisor to the RSF commander, claimed that "satellite images tracked the drone and confirmed it belonged to the Sudanese government forces." However, he refused to share the video, saying, "It can be made public once an independent international investigation committee is formed."

On the other hand, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) countered and claimed that RSF was responsible. What is noteworthy is that the SAF has no records of using Chinese-made drones or bombs such as GB25A or GB50A. The SAF is known to operate Turkish-made MAM-L bombs and Iranian-made drones and weapons.

Future outlook [AI analysis]

This incident suggests that the internationalization of the Sudanese civil war has entered a new phase. Chad's president's order to retaliate is highly likely to lead to a direct military conflict between the two countries.

In terms of the weapons supply chain, pressure from the international community is also expected to intensify. As suspicions about the UAE's arms re-export come into the spotlight again, there is a possibility that the debate over the effectiveness of Sudan's arms embargo will be reignited. Bellingcat requested comment from China's Norinco and the UAE, but did not receive a response before publication.

Amid deepening security instability across the Sahel region, tensions on the Chad-Sudan border are highly likely to worsen the humanitarian crisis. If the crisis in Sudan, which has already resulted in millions of refugees, spreads to neighboring countries, the possibility that the entire region will fall into chain instability cannot be ruled out.