Trump Administration's China Strategy: Taiwan as the Watershed

Robert O'Brien, who served as White House National Security Advisor during Trump's first term, has identified the Taiwan issue as the key variable that will determine the future of US-China relations.

In a recent interview with Foreign Affairs magazine's podcast, O'Brien stated, "If China does not invade Taiwan and does not invade the Philippines, the United States can peacefully coexist with China." He emphasized that President Trump said "Xi Jinping and Chinese officials told him they would not take any action during his term," adding that "they understand the consequences."

Trump's Strategic Calculations

O'Brien explained that President Trump is currently managing multiple tasks simultaneously: rebuilding the US military, controlling the southern border, addressing the Ukraine situation, and dealing with Gaza and Iran issues.

He noted that "adding a US-China trade war or cold war to the to-do list is a situation everyone, including Trump himself, wants to avoid," and that "Trump intuitively judges that Xi Jinping will not invade Taiwan or the Philippines during his term."

This is interpreted as part of strategic priority setting. The Trump administration plans to focus on resolving domestic issues rather than immediate US-China conflicts, laying the groundwork so the next administration can respond from a more advantageous position.

Diplomatic Tensions Surrounding Taiwan

President Trump held bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October, but stated after the meeting that Taiwan was not discussed. Subsequently, in an interview with US media, when asked "whether US forces would intervene if China launched a military attack on Taiwan," he avoided a specific answer, saying "I can't reveal my secrets."

China's military threats against Taiwan continue to intensify. The People's Liberation Army repeatedly conducts military exercises in waters and airspace around Taiwan, increasing pressure, and the Taiwan Strait situation has emerged as a major concern for the international community.

Impact on South Korea

As Taiwan emerges as a key variable in US-China relations, South Korea's strategic position is also becoming increasingly important. South Korea is a key US ally while maintaining close economic relations with China, potentially facing difficult choices in the event of a Taiwan Strait crisis.

Particularly within the framework of the ROK-US alliance, South Korea may be asked to cooperate in some form with US Taiwan defense operations, which could directly impact Korea-China relations. Cooperation with Taiwan in advanced industries such as semiconductors and batteries is also expanding, making the Taiwan Strait situation a direct variable for the Korean economy.

Outline of Trump's Second-Term Foreign Policy [AI Analysis]

Through his Foreign Affairs contribution, O'Brien presented specific directions for Trump's second-term foreign policy. Beyond the 2026 defense budget, plans include investing an additional $150 billion to accelerate US military modernization and persuading allies to spend 5% of GDP on defense to share the free world's security burden.

In Middle East policy, the administration is expected to maintain a hardline stance of not recognizing Hamas, firmly supporting Israel, applying maximum pressure on Iran, and not ruling out attacks on nuclear enrichment facilities. While the Ukraine war is moving toward resolution, progress remains slow due to President Putin's lack of willingness to compromise.

Future US-China relations are likely to see continued structural tensions centered on the Taiwan issue. Even if the Trump administration avoids immediate conflict, the fundamental structure of collision between China's will for Taiwan unification and the US Indo-Pacific strategy remains unchanged. For countries in the region, including South Korea, balanced diplomacy that secures strategic autonomy while maximizing practical benefits will become increasingly important amid this US-China competitive structure.