Syria Enters a New Era of Chaos

Following the collapse of the Assad regime in 2025, Syria has once again fallen into a power vacuum. This time, two regional powers—Turkey and Israel—are engaged in fierce competition to advance their respective strategic interests.

Turkey is supporting Islamist forces while expanding direct control over northern Syria. Meanwhile, Israel is pursuing a policy of protecting and supporting minority religious and ethnic groups with historical roots in Syria.

Turkey's Strategy: Territorial Expansion and Islamization

The Erdoğan government in Turkey has conducted large-scale military intervention in northern Syria since March 2025. This is interpreted not as a simple security operation, but as an actual attempt at territorial annexation.

Turkey's policy is detrimental to the majority of Syrian citizens. Analysts note that it benefits neither minority groups such as Kurds, Yazidis, Druze, Alawites, and Armenians, nor ordinary Sunni Muslims. This is because Turkey is pursuing a predatory policy aimed at converting Syrian territory into Turkish land.

The threat is particularly severe for Armenians and Christians. One expert warned that "Armenians remaining in an Islamist Syria dominated by Turkey should evacuate immediately," adding that "there is no future for non-Sunni Muslim, non-Arab minorities in a country where Islamists and their backer Erdoğan hold real power."

Israel's Approach: Federalization-Based Stabilization

In contrast, Israel is pursuing a policy of supporting and protecting tribal and religious groups that have historically inhabited Syria. Israel's ultimate goal is to establish a tribal canton federal Syria where each group has autonomy.

This federal structure has potential to actually function. It would reduce resources wasted on warfare, while the central government would focus on minimizing conflicts between cantons through political and fiscal means. Because this aligns with Israel's interests, Israel is expected to provide not only military support but substantial assistance through all practical means.

Recurrence of the Syrian Refugee Crisis

Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, the majority of Armenians and Christians have already left Syria and are unlikely to return. This resembles what happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein. At that time, most Armenians, Christians, and Yazidis left Iraq amid sectarian violence and civil war conditions.

Currently, Alawite Muslims (the Assad family's sect) and Druze are also suffering attacks and persecution from Islamists, and may soon join them in exodus.

Historical Context: The Middle East's Recurring Divisions

The current Syrian situation is a legacy of British-French colonial policy after World War I. The Syrian state created at that time never represented the interests of all Syrian citizens, at best reflecting only the interests of specific groups like the Alawites.

These artificial borders and power structures have become seeds of recurring conflict throughout the Middle East. Libya also saw renewed civil war after Gaddafi, and is currently divided into two hostile camps—with Erdoğan's intervention there as well.

A Region Where Pessimism Becomes Reality

A cynical assessment states that "in this region, optimism is foolishness and optimists are fools." This is especially true when Islamists are involved and regional powers like Turkey and major powers fuel conflicts.

History proves this. Pessimists who fled survived, while optimists who stayed were killed, whether intentionally or as 'collateral damage.'

Future Outlook [AI Analysis]

Syria's future will likely unfold in one of three scenarios.

First, Turkey's permanent annexation of northern Syria. This could intensify conflicts with Kurds and lead to the complete elimination of minority religious and ethnic groups.

Second, success of the federal model supported by Israel. This resembles a Swiss-style model that guarantees autonomy for each group while the central government plays a minimal coordinating role. However, this requires consensus among all groups and cessation of external intervention.

Third, prolonged second civil war. The possibility of remaining a divided state with multiple competing forces, like Libya, cannot be ruled out.

The impact on South Korea also deserves attention. If the Syrian crisis becomes prolonged, Middle Eastern energy market instability will increase, which could affect South Korea's crude oil import prices. It will also present new challenges for international peacekeeping activities in which South Korea participates.