Iran's Hardline Response

Iranian officials are threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the United States' intensified oil sanctions against Iran.

An Iranian parliamentary member warned on October 4 that "if the U.S. or its allies block Iran's oil exports, we will close the Strait of Hormuz." Iran's military judiciary chief also stated on October 5 that "we will not allow U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf to threaten Iran's economic and military security."

Trump's 'Maximum Pressure' Campaign Returns

These Iranian threats come in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's resumption of the maximum pressure policy against Iran in February 2025. This policy aims to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and reduce its regional influence.

The Trump administration has publicly stated its goal to bring Iranian oil exports to "zero." Reuters reported in March that the U.S. is considering boarding and inspecting Iranian oil tankers at sea in coordination with allies.

Potential Repeat of 2019 Scenario

Iran has taken similar action under comparable circumstances in 2019. At that time, it destroyed tankers off the UAE coast, seized a British vessel, and launched cruise missiles at Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

Recently, Iranian military commanders have intensified inspections of naval units in the Persian Gulf, particularly those deployed on the Nazeat Islands. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployed mines, ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and speedboats on these islands in May.

Iranian state media Mehr News detailed Iran's anti-ship missile capabilities on October 7, emphasizing the development of new cruise missiles with fully automated guidance systems.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway through which approximately 21% of global oil shipments pass. If Iran actually closes the strait, immediate shocks to the global energy market are expected.

During the first Trump administration from 2018-2021, the U.S. seized Iranian oil tankers and weapons shipments as part of its maximum pressure campaign.

Iran's Expanding Influence in Iraq

Meanwhile, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an Iraqi militia organization influenced by Iran, arrested individuals with alleged Baath Party connections in Anbar and Dhi Qar provinces on October 2 and 8.

The PMF Intelligence Directorate launched a campaign on October 2 to track down Baath Party remnants, with the Iran-backed Badr Organization's 27th Brigade arresting one person in Anbar's Karma district for allegedly spreading Baath Party ideology. On October 8, several "high-ranking" Baath Party veterans were additionally arrested in Nasiriyah, Dhi Qar province.

These arrests are interpreted as attempts to suppress Sunni political forces ahead of Iraq's November 2025 parliamentary elections. Iraqi law prohibits Baath Party members from political activity, and Shiite politicians have employed a strategy of politically marginalizing Sunnis by associating them with Saddam Hussein's regime.

Impact on South Korea

South Korea imports a significant amount of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait is blocked, domestic oil price spikes and an energy security crisis are expected.

The Korean government will likely need to consider emergency measures such as securing alternative supply sources and releasing strategic petroleum reserves if the Iran-U.S. conflict escalates.

Future Outlook [AI Analysis]

The likelihood of tensions between Iran and the United States easing in the short term appears low. The Trump administration shows no signs of relaxing sanctions, and Iran is not demonstrating willingness to abandon its nuclear program.

The possibility of military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is assessed as moderate. Limited military actions similar to 2019 are likely to recur, while the probability of escalation to full-scale war is relatively low.

Iran's influence in Iraq is expected to continue strengthening. Pro-Iranian Shiite forces are likely to further consolidate their political dominance after the November elections.

The international crude oil market is expected to experience increased volatility for the time being. Investors should prepare for potential oil price increases reflecting risk premiums due to deteriorating Middle East conditions.