Prime Minister Ishiba's Final Diplomatic Achievements

Ahead of tomorrow's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, former Foreign Ministry senior analyst Masaru Sato highly praised Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's diplomatic accomplishments.

Particularly noteworthy is the strengthening of relations with Indian Prime Minister Modi. Prime Minister Ishiba personally rode the Tohoku Shinkansen to actively promote the introduction of Shinkansen technology for India's high-speed rail project. The key point is that East Japan's Shinkansen possesses technical capabilities suited to India's environment.

Additionally, Prime Minister Ishiba made the decisive choice to reject Palestinian recognition. Analyst Sato evaluated this as "a very courageous decision." He explained that European countries like the UK, Austria, and France recognized Palestine due to imperialist thinking aimed at maintaining influence in former colonies, but Japan has no such historical background and therefore no need to intervene.

Maintaining good relations with President Trump was also positively assessed. Prime Minister Ishiba continued the Prime Minister's Office-led diplomacy that had persisted since the Abe administration, and succeeded in obtaining U.S. approval for cooperation with India.

The LDP's Structural Crisis

However, Analyst Sato firmly stated that the possibility of Prime Minister Ishiba's return is virtually nonexistent. The reason is that Japan's political structure is fundamentally changing.

Japan is currently transitioning to a multi-party system organized by multiple parties' comparative plurality. This means the collapse of the 'Catch-All Party' model that the LDP had maintained for so long.

Prime Minister Ishiba was a figure who could demonstrate cooperation and coordination abilities in this multi-party environment. In contrast, other candidates like Sanae Takaichi still harbor the illusion that the LDP can return to being a catch-all party, according to the analysis.

Possibility of Coalition Realignment

If candidate Takaichi becomes party president, there is a possibility that Komeito will withdraw from the coalition. In that case, the LDP could seek a new alliance with parties like Sanseito and the Conservative Party of Japan.

Analyst Sato warned that if such an alliance forms, fiscal discipline could collapse and economic chaos could ensue.

The growth potential of Sanseito is also attracting attention. In a situation where Japan's university enrollment rate is about 60%, most Diet members are from extremely prestigious universities. In contrast, a characteristic of Sanseito politicians is that their educational backgrounds are closer to the general public.

Professionals such as private practitioners, dentists, and lawyers support Sanseito, with some donating amounts close to the individual contribution limit of 1.5 million yen. Grassroots activities are also active, including greeting Ground Self-Defense Force members every morning in front of their bases.

Realistic Limitations of Nuclear Armament Theory

Regarding Sanseito's advocacy for nuclear armament, Analyst Sato pointed out realistic limitations.

First, there is no place for nuclear testing. Additionally, due to the Japan-U.S. Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, if nuclear weapons development begins, all nuclear fuel must be returned to the United States, requiring Japan to give up nuclear power plants.

Building ground launch bases is also difficult. In a situation where even Aegis Ashore defensive missile launch bases could not be constructed, building nuclear missile bases is even more unrealistic.

The reason the UK and France also lack ground bases is that with a land area like Japan's, complete annihilation by an enemy's first strike is possible. Second-strike deterrence requires nuclear submarines, but Japan can neither purchase nor build them.

Analyst Sato noted that "Japanese politicians and bureaucrats are all talkative," making maintaining secrecy for nuclear development impossible. Secrecy must be maintained until a successful nuclear test, which is unrealizable in Japan.

The LDP's Fate Foreseen in 'The Chrysanthemum and the Sword' [AI Analysis]

Analyst Sato described the LDP's future using the famous line from the popular manga Fist of the North Star: "You are already dead." Tomorrow's voting day is not the LDP's judgment day but its death anniversary.

He cited Ruth Benedict's The Chrysanthemum and the Sword. After aerial combat ended, a Japanese military captain returned to base, confirmed his subordinates' return, reported to the commander, then collapsed and died. When the body was examined, it was already cold, and he had suffered a fatal chest wound but endured until completing his mission.

This anecdote symbolizes the Japanese samurai spirit of meeting death after fulfilling one's duty. Just as Prime Minister Ishiba threw himself into saving the LDP, the LDP may have already suffered fatal wounds but is completing its final mission.

In the future, Japanese politics will likely accelerate its transition to a multi-party era. The end of the catch-all party model has become an inevitable trend, and each party will need to establish a clear identity and policy line to survive. The growth of emerging forces like Sanseito can also be seen as one aspect of this transformation.