Israel Becomes the Region's Greatest Destabilizing Factor

The keywords that defined Middle Eastern geopolitics in 2025 were Israel's aggressive expansion and Türkiye's growing influence. Israel fundamentally altered the regional power dynamics, beginning with a 12-day military confrontation with Iran in June, during which it directly struck Iranian nuclear facilities and military bases.

Professor Ali Bakeer of Qatar University's International Security Studies program analyzed that "Israel significantly weakened Iran's 'forward defense' strategy and proxy network, securing military superiority in the region."

However, Israel's indiscriminate military actions paradoxically transformed the country into the region's greatest threat. From the Gaza genocide to unauthorized airstrikes on Lebanon and Syria, and even an unprecedented attack on Qatar, Israel has become increasingly isolated both regionally and internationally.

The Abraham Accords Lose Momentum

Israel's hegemonic pursuit triggered a strategic recalculation among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The Arab-Israeli normalization trend, which had been the core driver of the Abraham Accords signed in 2020, came to a halt.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states began prioritizing "pragmatic reconciliation with a weakened Iran" over "an unpredictable and hegemonic Israel." For the GCC, which places regional stability as its highest priority, Israel's military adventurism emerged as a direct threat.

This signifies that the Abraham Accords, which had been a central axis of Middle Eastern diplomacy in the early 2020s, have effectively lost their momentum. Israel's aggressive behavior has ironically blocked its own path to normalizing relations with the Arab world.

Türkiye Emerges as an Alternative Power

In contrast to Israel's destabilizing policies, Türkiye has emerged as an influential regional power. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's leadership, Türkiye has secured multiple strategic assets.

Key factors include:

• Enhanced influence following the collapse of Syria's Assad regime in late 2024
• Rapidly growing defense industry capabilities
• Improved relations with Iraq, Egypt, and Gulf states
• Favorable relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump

Türkiye has positioned itself as one of the few regional powers capable of countering Israel's destabilizing policies, leveraging its historical, geographical, and cultural depth. This represents not merely military capability but the presentation of an alternative vision pursuing regional stability, peace, and security.

Implications for South Korea

Changes in Middle Eastern geopolitics have direct and indirect impacts on South Korea in terms of energy security and defense cooperation.

The trend of Gulf states distancing themselves from Israel while strengthening ties with Türkiye offers insights for South Korean Middle East diplomacy. For South Korea, which has expanded energy and infrastructure cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, their strategic realignment requires careful monitoring.

Additionally, Türkiye's defense industry growth may create a competitive dynamic with South Korea in the Middle Eastern arms market. As both countries compete in third-party markets like Poland, finding the balance between strategic cooperation and competition emerges as a key challenge.

2026 Outlook [AI Analysis]

In 2026, Israel is likely to continue its destructive policies in the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. However, the intensity may be moderated due to international pressure and deepening regional isolation.

Türkiye is expected to further consolidate its influence in Syria's reconstruction process and establish a trilateral cooperation framework with Iraq and Egypt. This could accelerate the transition from an Israel-centric order to a multipolar system in the Middle East.

Gulf states will maintain their pragmatic approach, simultaneously pursuing tension reduction with Iran and strengthening cooperation with Türkiye. The Abraham Accords are unlikely to be revived in the near term, and the axis of Middle Eastern diplomacy may shift from security-centered to economy and energy cooperation-centered.