Diplomacy is the Answer

Turkey has positioned diplomacy and dialogue as its top strategic priority amid rapidly changing international circumstances. Ambassador Semih Lütfü Turgut, Turkey's Ambassador to Sri Lanka, addressed the Pathfinder Foundation's Ambassador Roundtable on January 21, urging international cooperation by stating that "diplomacy is the most effective and cost-efficient policy tool."

Ambassador Turgut diagnosed that the world in 2026 is experiencing extreme instability due to unresolved conflicts, shifting power balances, and the weakening of the rules-based international order. He emphasized the importance of strengthening bilateral, regional, and multilateral cooperation, noting that "although geographically distant, Turkey and Sri Lanka share common aspirations for peace, stability, and sustainable development."

Lessons from Ukraine and Gaza Conflicts

The Ambassador characterized the Ukraine war and Gaza conflict as "defining crises of our time." These two wars simultaneously demonstrate the limits of military power and the enormous humanitarian costs of war, while exposing double standards in the international system.

He particularly pointed out the fragility of ceasefire efforts in Gaza, emphasizing that sustained international engagement is essential to prevent further escalation and humanitarian suffering. He also identified instability in Yemen, Iran, and the Horn of Africa, as well as rising tensions in Europe and East Asia, as areas of concern.

He expressed concern that intensifying arms buildups, proxy wars, and geopolitical competition risk further deteriorating global stability, and that economic pressure and austerity policies could fuel political extremism.

Three Pillars of Turkish Foreign Policy

Ambassador Turgut outlined three core directions of Turkish foreign policy.

1. Russia-Ukraine Mediation Efforts Turkey is focusing on securing global food security through Black Sea stability and continues to serve as a dialogue channel between both sides.

2. European Union (EU) Full Membership Full EU membership remains a strategic priority for Turkey. The policy is to expand economic and security cooperation through strengthening relations with Europe.

3. Strengthening Central Asian Cooperation Turkey is strengthening ties with Central Asia through the Organisation of Turkic States and promoting economic cooperation in energy and transportation corridor development.

Implications for South Korea

Turkey's strategy is drawing attention as a model for middle-power diplomacy. South Korea also faces the challenge of securing independent diplomatic space amid US-China competition.

Turkey's approach—positioning itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine while simultaneously pursuing EU membership and Central Asian cooperation—offers valuable insights for securing South Korea's strategic autonomy. It particularly suggests possibilities for mediating and coordinating roles that South Korea could play regarding the North Korean nuclear issue, Korea-Japan relations, and Indo-Pacific strategy.

Future Outlook [AI Analysis]

Turkey's diplomatic strategy is likely to continue developing around the twin pillars of mediation diplomacy and economic cooperation beyond 2026.

As the Ukraine war becomes prolonged, Turkey's mediating role is expected to become increasingly important. The stable operation of grain export agreements through the Black Sea is directly linked to mitigating the global food crisis.

While EU membership is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, substantial cooperation expansion is expected to continue, given that Turkey's cooperation is essential in addressing energy crises and refugee issues.

In Central Asia, Turkey may establish an independent course leveraging cultural and linguistic ties between China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russian influence. Energy corridor development could accelerate in conjunction with Europe's strategy to reduce dependence on Russian energy.

From South Korea's perspective, cooperation with Turkey could provide opportunities to secure a foothold for expansion into the Middle East and Central Asia, and to strengthen diplomatic standing through middle-power solidarity.