Energy debate sparked by the Hormuz crisis

As tensions between the United States and Iran increase, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, resulting in energy supply instability hitting the world. Fatih Birol, Director-General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), described this incident as "the greatest global energy security threat in history."

In this crisis situation, right-wing politicians, including British Conservative Party leader Kemi Badnock, and the media have called for more oil and gas drilling licenses to be issued in the North Sea. However, many of their claims were found to be untrue or misleading.

Why is this debate important?

The debate over North Sea oil and gas expansion goes beyond simple energy policy and is directly related to the direction of climate change response. Fossil fuel expansion advocates try to justify expansion of North Sea drilling on three fronts: energy security, household energy costs, and carbon emissions, but there are serious logical flaws in each argument.

First, in terms of energy security, North Sea crude oil and gas are traded in the international market, so even if domestic production is increased, it cannot be free from the influence of international price fluctuations. Second, the argument for reducing household energy costs is also unconvincing for the same reason. Third, in the case of carbon emissions, the argument that expanding North Sea production contributes to reducing global emissions ignores the possibility of increasing total demand for fossil fuels.

Historical context of the fossil fuel debate

The debate surrounding North Sea oil and gas development has become more intense in the 2020s. Concerns about energy security in Europe have grown due to the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, and this has given rise to arguments for the expansion of fossil fuels. However, at the same time, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom have established policies in the direction that energy independence through expansion of renewable energy is a long-term solution.

The 2025 Strait of Hormuz crisis brought this debate back to the surface. In the short term, dependence on fossil fuels appears to be deepening, with Asian countries increasing the proportion of coal-fired power generation due to LNG supply disruptions and Japan announcing expansion of coal-fired power plant operations.

However, the UK shows a different pattern. In the UK, renewable energy generation reached a record high this Wednesday, and the government announced plans to require solar panels and heat pumps to be installed in all new homes from 2028. Even in ordinary households, the installation of solar panels is rapidly increasing due to the conflict in Iran.

Future outlook [AI analysis]

This Hormuz crisis is likely to be a “watershed” in the energy transition. In the short term, dependence on existing fossil fuels such as coal will increase, but in the mid to long term, it is expected to act as a catalyst to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

Germany has already announced plans to meet its 2030 climate goals and reduce its dependence on "volatile fossil fuel imports." The UK is also maintaining its policy of expanding renewable energy. The argument for expansion of North Sea oil and gas is nothing more than short-term political logic and is unlikely to be a fundamental solution to energy security.

Meanwhile, a report on the large-scale blackout that caused blackouts in Spain and Portugal last year concluded that the cause of the problem was not solar or wind power generation. This suggests that concerns about the grid stability of renewable energy are exaggerated.