Key facts: 40% outage of Russian oil export infrastructure

Ukraine carried out large-scale drone attacks on ports and oil refineries in Russia's Leningrad region this week, being assessed as the "most serious threat" since a full-scale invasion in 2022. According to industry reports, about 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is currently offline.

Energy experts diagnosed this as a “logistics problem before a production problem,” and analyzed that transporting oil to buyers has become as difficult as producing it.

Why this matters: Iran war + Ukraine = double supply shock

This incident is like adding fuel to the already overheated global energy market. Over the past month, the financial market has been suffering from concerns about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (about 20% of the world's oil traffic through which it passes) due to the war with Iran. The Trump administration took steps to ease sanctions on Russian crude oil in the short term to stabilize the energy market, but this plan was neutralized by Ukraine's counterattack.

With the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East, the resulting disruption in oil and LNG production, and the disruption in supply from Russia, it is highly likely that oil prices will continue to soar for a longer period of time than initially expected.

When did this trend begin: Compounding energy geopolitical risks?

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the global energy market has been constantly exposed to geopolitical risks. The clash between Western sanctions against Russia and Russia's energy weaponization triggered a natural gas crisis in Europe, and heightened tensions in the Middle East after 2024 further amplified uncertainty in the oil market.

In 2025, as the war with Iran began in earnest, the Strait of Hormuz risk became a reality, and with Ukraine's strengthening of its capabilities to strike Russia's mainland added, the energy supply chain entered a phase of multiple pressures.

Future outlook [AI analysis]

Impact on inflation and interest rate paths

Long-term high energy prices are likely to cause 'sticky inflation'. In this case, central banks in major countries, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, may increase interest rates or strengthen their stance of maintaining high interest rates for a long period of time.

According to multiple foreign media outlets, as a result of analyzing options market trends linked to overnight interest rates, traders are betting on the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike within the next two weeks. This suggests that the market has begun to reflect the short-term tightening scenario in earnest in prices.

Bitcoin and risk asset outlook

A reduced liquidity environment is likely to exert downward pressure on risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC). Currently, Bitcoin is moving in the $65,000 to $75,000 range, but if energy-related macro risks persist, it may be tested for a breakout from the lower end of this range.

However, this is a short-term adjustment scenario, and the possibility that geopolitical uncertainty may serve as an opportunity to strengthen Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative in the mid- to long-term cannot be ruled out.