Fourth Plenum Begins to Discuss Five-Year Economic Blueprint

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (Fourth Plenum) convened in Beijing for four days starting October 20. The meeting, attended by 370 Central Committee members including President Xi Jinping, focuses on the 15th Five-Year Plan that will determine China's economic direction from 2026 to 2030 as its main agenda.

The Fourth Plenum is the fourth of seven plenary sessions held during the Central Committee's five-year term, traditionally addressing political lines and personnel matters. However, with last July's Third Plenum delayed by nine months, the discussion of the Five-Year Plan has been unusually advanced to this Fourth Plenum.

Double Burden of US-China Tariff War and Domestic Demand Slump

This meeting takes place against the backdrop of China's 'internal and external troubles' situation. The trade war intensified after President Donald Trump's inauguration has dealt a direct blow to China's economy, while sluggish domestic demand and real estate decline are accelerating the growth slowdown.

The World Bank projected China's growth rate this year at 4.8%, falling short of the Chinese government's target of around 5%. With the US-China summit scheduled for later this month and tensions escalating between the two nations, international attention is focused on what economic countermeasures China will present.

The Associated Press reported that "revitalizing consumption and corporate investment while alleviating overproduction problems are China's major economic challenges," forecasting that President Xi Jinping will emphasize his vision to become a leading nation in core technology sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI).

Personnel Restructuring and Military Leadership Vacuum

Beyond economic agenda items, this Fourth Plenum has drawn attention for possible high-level personnel changes in the party, government, and military. He Weidong, third-ranked vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, Liu Jianchao, former director of the International Liaison Department who was mentioned as a potential foreign minister, and Jin Zhuanglong, minister of industry and information technology known as the 'technology czar,' have disappeared from public view.

With vacancies in Central Committee positions, analysts suggest the Central Military Commission is effectively operating at 'half capacity.' However, experts predict there will be no extreme personnel overhaul or major organizational changes.

Closed-Door Meeting, Official Announcement at Next March's National People's Congress

The Fourth Plenum operates under strict confidentiality. Participants cannot leave the venue during the meeting period, and agreed-upon contents are shared only in a brief report format on the closing day. Detailed content is expected to be officially announced at the National People's Congress (NPC) scheduled for March 2026.

Attention is focused on how China's 15th Five-Year Plan will impact the global economy and technology hegemony competition, and whether the Xi Jinping third-term government's economic blueprint can translate into actual results.

[AI Analysis] Turning Point in China's Economic Strategy

This Fourth Plenum represents an important turning point for gauging the economic direction of Xi Jinping's third-term government. Amid prolonged US-China trade conflicts, a key point of interest is whether China will shift to a domestic demand-centered growth model or pursue both technological self-reliance and enhanced export competitiveness.

While emphasis on cultivating advanced industries such as AI, semiconductors, and electric vehicle batteries is likely, experts point out that sustainable growth is difficult to ensure without resolving real estate decline and local government debt issues. In particular, whether specific policies to stimulate consumption emerge will be crucial for China's future economic recovery.

In an international environment of intensifying global supply chain restructuring and technology hegemony competition, China's Five-Year Plan is not merely China's concern but is expected to become a variable affecting the overall Asian economy and global market landscape.