Polarization of the IT Labor Market in the AI Era

Artificial intelligence technology is fundamentally transforming the employment structure in the information technology (IT) sector. Vladislav Laptev, Innovation Director at Russian innovation firm Fork-Tech, analyzed that "AI development is polarizing the IT labor market into highly skilled professionals and personnel managing AI-assisted tools."

According to the recent report 'A new future of work' by McKinsey Global Institute, approximately 30% of total work hours at European and U.S. companies will be automated by AI by 2030. Simultaneously, demand for advanced talent in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields is expected to increase by 17-30% compared to 2022.

"The Era of AI Writing 90% of Code is Coming"

Dario Amodei, CEO of AI development company Anthropic, presented an even more radical forecast. He stated, "Before long, AI will write 90% of program code, and after a bit more time, it will write 100% of all code."

These changes are already being detected in reality. Today's IT professionals don't just mean software developers. They encompass a broad range of personnel involved in developing digital products and services, including customer experience analysts and technical support engineers.

Customer Support: Front Line of AI Transformation

At large B2C companies such as telecommunications and banking firms, a significant portion of first-tier customer support tasks has already been replaced by AI assistants. Voice bots and chatbots handle large volumes of standardized customer inquiries, instantly retrieving information from internal systems and knowledge bases.

This means reduced demand for general employees who work by manual. Instead, only professionals with advanced capabilities to respond to non-standard requests, collect additional information, and collaborate with other departments are needed.

Web Design Studios Also Expanding with AI

The web design field is also at the center of change. Design studios with reusable UI component kits can now expand their business several-fold without increasing staff by utilizing AI assistants.

Design tool Figma recently launched its beta version tool 'Figma Sites'. This tool converts design templates into complete websites without writing code. Instead of employees manually creating site mockups, AI automatically generates them following clear instructions.

The 'Barbell Strategy' of the IT Labor Market

Director Laptev explained the current situation by drawing an analogy to Nassim Taleb's 'Barbell Strategy' used in financial risk management. The barbell strategy is an approach that avoids medium-risk investments and diversifies between extremely high-risk and low-risk assets.

The IT labor market is being restructured in a similar pattern. Demand for highly skilled professionals and general employees handling AI tool setup and management tasks is increasing, while workers with intermediate-level skills are gradually losing their place.

[AI Analysis] The Dual Nature of Technological Revolution

The advancement of AI technology is likely to have a dual impact on the IT industry.

Positive aspects:

• Increased value and wages for advanced professional talent
• Productivity improvement through automation of repetitive tasks
• Creation of new AI management and operations job categories

Negative aspects:

• Risk of large-scale restructuring of intermediate-skill workers
• Deepening income polarization due to technology gaps
• Increase in workers who may lose jobs without retraining

The year 2030 presented in the McKinsey report is just five years away. It's time for both companies and developers to proactively respond to this change. The survival strategy will be to evolve into talent with problem-solving, system design, and domain expertise beyond simple coding capabilities, or to acquire new skills needed in the AI era.