The Persian Gulf Stands Still

As the Middle East conflict intensifies, approximately 20,000 seafarers find themselves stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The United Nations' International Maritime Organization (IMO) has declared the situation "unprecedented in the modern shipping era since World War II." Around 2,000 vessels — including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, cargo ships, and six tourist cruise liners — are trapped in the Persian Gulf, unable to navigate through the narrow passage.

Before the conflict, roughly 150 ships transited the strait daily. That number has collapsed to just four or five. Iran, which controls the northern shore of the strait, has declared it will only permit passage to vessels it deems "non-hostile."

A Shooting Gallery at Sea: 10 Dead, 8 Injured

Since the Israeli-US bombing campaign against Iran began approximately one month ago, the IMO has recorded 19 attacks on vessels in the strait. Ten seafarers have been killed and eight injured. On Tuesday, a fully loaded oil tanker was struck off the coast of Dubai, likely by an armed drone. The rationale behind targeting those specific 19 ships remains unclear.

There are signs the attack frequency has declined in recent days, coinciding with renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. On Monday, two Chinese-flagged cargo ships reportedly completed the four-to-six-hour transit through the strait, reaching the relative safety of the Gulf of Oman.

IMO's Damien Chevallier stated: "There is no precedent for the stranding of so many seafarers in the modern age," adding that the safe evacuation of the 20,000 crew members remains the agency's top priority.

The Strait's History: A Perennial Flashpoint

At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz measures just 33 kilometers across — yet through it passes roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade. It has been a geopolitical pressure point since the Cold War era.

During the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, the so-called "Tanker War" saw systematic attacks on commercial vessels, though the dynamics differed from today's crisis. More recently, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in the early 2020s had already strained global supply chains. The direct Israeli-US strikes on Iran represent an escalation that has effectively brought that tension to the point of sealing off the strait itself.

What distinguishes this crisis from previous episodes is not that ships are being targeted — it is that ships are trapped inside a war zone with no clear exit route.

What Comes Next [AI Analysis]

For South Korea, the implications are direct and severe. Korea imports approximately 70% of its crude oil from the Middle East, with the majority transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. With the strait effectively paralyzed, energy supply disruptions and surging freight costs are unavoidable. International oil prices have seen elevated volatility since the conflict began, and South Korean refiners and shipbuilders are monitoring developments closely.

From a global supply chain perspective, analysts suggest three scenarios are most likely should the crisis persist. First, vessels may increasingly divert to the Cape of Good Hope route around Africa, potentially driving freight rates up by 30–50%. Second, a de facto two-tier shipping market could emerge, with only vessels from nations friendly to Iran — such as China and Russia — permitted to transit, accelerating the geopolitical fragmentation of global trade. Third, if diplomatic negotiations progress, a phased reopening of transit may occur, though Iran's definition of "non-hostile" is likely to become a new flashpoint.

The most pressing humanitarian concern remains the 20,000 crew members currently stranded. The IMO is engaged in evacuation negotiations, but without the consent of all warring parties, any organized evacuation operation faces severe practical constraints. Without a diplomatic resolution, their situation is likely to persist.